Quantifying the accelerated diffusion and cost savings of global solar photovoltaic supply chains

Authors

Baihe GU, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaFollow

Document Type

Research-Article

Author

Zhuo Chen, Baihe Gu, Donghui Yu, Chen Wang

Journal Name

iScience

Keywords

Energy engineering, Energy policy, Energy resources, Engineering

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is critical for achieving the 2030 global target of tripling renewable power capacity. Over the past two decades, the global supply chain has significantly reduced the cost of solar PV products enabling widespread adoption. However, many countries are now implementing decoupling measures to enhance supply chain security and boost local economies. Here we quantify the impact of decoupling measures on solar PV deployment and module costs in China, the EU, the US, and Japan, using a methodology that combines the learning curve with the Bass diffusion model. Our results indicate that decoupling measures could lead to a significant increase in PV module costs and a marked slowdown in global deployment due to the disruption of free flows of capital, technology, talent, and information. The global supply chain remains essential for addressing the climate crisis. Countries should balance growth, security, and climate objectives in their green industrial policies. © 2024 The Author(s)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111610

Recommended Citation

GU, Baihe (2025) "Quantifying the accelerated diffusion and cost savings of global solar photovoltaic supply chains," Double Helix Methodology: Vol. 6: Iss. 1, Article 11.
Available at: https://diis-mips.researchcommons.org/helix-content/vol6/iss1/11