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Transportation sector's carbon emission pressure in Chinese provinces during carbon peak

Document Type

Research-Article

Author

Zihong Liu, Haitao Xiong, Guo-liang Yang

Journal Name

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

Keywords

Carbon emission demand, Carbon emission pressure, Carbon peak, Carbon quotas, Data envelopment analysis, Transportation sector

Abstract

This paper introduces a new method for ex-ante assessment of carbon emission pressure , incorporating carbon quotas allocation and emission demand forecasting while considering efficiency, fairness, technological progress, regional production technology heterogeneity, and expected production scale. The method is applied to empirically investigate the low-carbon production efficiency, spatial distribution, and dynamic trends of CEPs in 30 Chinese provinces’ transportation sectors during the carbon peak period. Results show that: western provinces and populous provinces are the main sources of inefficiency in China's low-carbon transportation efforts, inland hub provinces like Hebei and Hubei will see low and steadily decreasing CEPs, eastern coastal provinces with large transportation scale, resource-exporting central provinces, and western provinces will face high and rising CEPs for various reasons. The method's validity and accuracy are verified through comparison, and policy implications are provided to support a differentiated low-carbon transition in China's transportation sector. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

http://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.104606

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