Scenario-based projections of electricity prices in China's carbon-neutral transition

Authors

Shurui WangFollow
Jianlei MoFollow
Jie YANG, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Mingxi LiuFollow
Jiaofeng PAN, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaFollow

Document Type

Research-Article

Author

Shurui Wang, Jianlei Mo, Jie Yang, Mingxi Liu, Jiaofeng Pan, Xunpeng Shi, Ye Huang

Journal Name

iScience

Keywords

Economics, Environmental management, Environmental policy

Abstract

China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060 presents major challenges and opportunities for its electricity market. This study analyzes baseline, low-efficiency, and high-efficiency scenarios to represent potential decarbonization pathways in China up to 2060, aiming to estimate the range of electricity prices for each province. A comprehensive dataset covering 5680 coal power units, 342 hydroelectric plants, 172 gas power stations, 19 nuclear power stations, and various solar and wind farms, provides a solid foundation for a bottom-up calculation approach. The results show that most provinces will see a decline in electricity prices due to technological advancements and optimized power generation. The findings in this research contribute to the academic understanding of regional electricity market dynamics under long-term decarbonization scenarios and offer a quantitative basis for evaluating policy impacts on future electricity pricing. © 2025 The Author(s)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.112958

Recommended Citation

Wang, Shurui; Mo, Jianlei; YANG, Jie; Liu, Mingxi; and PAN, Jiaofeng (2025) "Scenario-based projections of electricity prices in China's carbon-neutral transition," Double Helix Methodology: Vol. 6: Iss. 7, Article 2.
Available at: https://diis-mips.researchcommons.org/helix-content/vol6/iss7/2