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Spatiotemporal assessment of heatwaves adaptation in Chinese cities and urban agglomerations: An integrated ND-GAIN framework and multi-model approach

Document Type

Research-Article

Author

Xiaodong Pei, Jing Wu, Yuke Li

Journal Name

Journal of Cleaner Production

Keywords

Adaptation, Coupling coordination, Heatwaves, Spatiotemporal characteristics, Urban agglomerations

Abstract

With escalating climate change, cities and urban agglomerations, as population and economic hubs, face growing heatwaves risks. Assessing heatwaves adaptation is key for disaster prevention and ensuring socio-economic stability. Existing studies mainly rely on traditional vulnerability frameworks, neglecting the public sector's role in heatwaves adaptation. They lack multi-scale spatiotemporal dynamics, overlook meteorological factors impacting human comfort in the index systems, and provide limited insights into the interactions between adaptation dimensions. This study used the ND-GAIN framework to create a “vulnerability-readiness” index system with meteorologic and socio-economic data. Several methods were applied to assess adaptation in 225 Chinese cities and 19 urban agglomerations in 2010 and 2020. Entropy-CRITIC weight method calculated indicators' weights, sensitivity model analyzed key factors influencing cities' adaptation, Dagum Gini coefficient quantified spatial differences in adaptation and identified their sources, and coupling coordination degree (CCD) model assessed the “vulnerability-readiness” interactions. Results showed: (1) Vulnerability increased westward, readiness was dispersed, and adaptation showed distinct clustering. (2) Adaptation and CCD of “vulnerability-readiness” improved across all cities and urban agglomerations, with mean adaptation increasing from 0.346 to 0.390, a rise of 12.577 %, and mean CCD from 0.573 to 0.660, a 15.117 % improvement. However, readiness construction still lagged behind vulnerability defense. (3) Provincial capitals and economically developed cities showed the greatest advantages. Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration had the highest adaptation and CCD. (4) Fiscal deficit ratio, fiscal transparency, and loan-to-deposit ratio of financial institutions significantly influenced adaptation, with sensitively coefficients of 0.093, 0.073, and 0.060. (5) Adaptation differences among urban agglomerations stemmed mainly from inter-regional differences, which have narrowed, with contribution dropping from 75.011 % to 71.422 %. These findings offer insights for heatwaves risk management and climate governance. © 2025

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.146150

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