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Risk identification and prevention of multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills

Document Type

Research-Article

Author

Feifeng Cao, Changhui Chen, Conglin Zhang, Jianwu Xing

Journal Name

Progress in Disaster Science

Keywords

Administrative Levels, Emergency Drills, Risk Assessment, Risk Identification, Risk Prevention, Stages, Climate Change, Disaster Management, Flood, Global Climate, Identification Method, Literature Review, Risk Assessment, Typhoon

Abstract

Amid increasing extreme weather events driven by global climate change, pre-emptive emergency drills are vital for strengthening disaster resilience. This paper focuses on risk identification and prevention in multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills, aiming to achieve effective risk management across administrative levels. Through literature review and expert consultation, 24 risk factors were hierarchically identified. A quantitative risk assessment model was developed by integrating the risk matrix and cloud model eigenvalues. The results show that risks are the most serious at municipal-level drills, with 20 risk factors (79.17 % of the total) at Level-III and above, decreasing at lower administrative levels (where risk level are categorized into Level-I (Major), Level-II (Large), Level-III (General), and Level-IV (Low) based on the risk matrix integrating likelihood and consequence levels, and Level-III and above risks may trigger resource wastage, drill failure, or even personnel casualties). Temporally, 39 risk factors at Level-III and above were concentrated in preparation stages across all administrative levels, declining to 3 such risk factors during rectification stage. Spatially, the number of risk factors peaked during the municipal-level and county-level preparation stages (11 risk factors respectively at Level-III and above), with their quantity gradually decreasing as the administrative level decreases and drill stages advance. Based on these findings, a systematic risk prevention matrix is proposed to offer targeted guidance for multi-level flood and typhoon prevention emergency drills in addressing climate change-induced disaster challenges. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100458

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