China's household water demand scenarios under the carbon neutrality transition
Document Type
Research-Article
Journal Name
Journal of Cleaner Production
Keywords
Carbon neutrality, Climate change, Household water use, Water conservation strategies, Water efficiency, Water resource management
Abstract
This paper aims to deeply analyze the structural changes in China's household water use under the carbon neutrality transition path and predict its future development trend. By integrating key factors such as climate change, household water use habits, efficiency of water-using appliances, penetration rate and household income level, this study constructed a household water use module in the IPAC-Tech Water model, which noticeably improved the accuracy and reliability of the model in predicting future changes in water resource demand. This paper first reveals the differential characteristics of household water use in various regions of China and its potential connection with climate change through case analysis. Then, this paper sets up eight different scenarios to simulate and analyze the future household water technology structure and water demand. The results show that temperature change is a significant factor affecting household water consumption. It is estimated that by 2050, the additional water consumption caused by rising temperatures will account for 29.3 % of the total water consumption. In the absence of water-saving measures, per capita water consumption may reach 219.2 L d−1 p−1; In the scenario of extreme water-saving measures and environmental constraints, water consumption can be reduced to 83.5 L d−1 p−1; In the most likely scenario, per capita water consumption is expected to reach 137.1 L d−1 p−1 in 2050. In addition, this study predicts that the market share of water-saving water-using appliances will increase notably before 2040, and the use of water-saving appliances will reduce water consumption by 60 %. This paper also comprehensively scores household water-using appliances with different water efficiency levels and quantifies the actual water-saving effect of water-saving appliances. The study further reveals the decoupling phenomenon between socioeconomic development and domestic water consumption, pointing out that water prices and income have limited impact on household domestic water consumption. This study emphasizes that when formulating water resources management and water conservation strategies, attention should be paid to the impact of temperature changes and the market share of domestic water-using appliances with different energy efficiency levels. These findings provide a scientific basis for policymakers, which will help formulate effective water resources management and water conservation strategies and promote the sustainable use of water resources. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd.